Thailand losses its smile

This is the full length version of the article

prepared for the UKs Daily Telegraph newspaper

Rows of rental motorbikes wait for renters in Chiang Mai. Photo John Le Fevre

Tourism sector businesses are being sold-up as Thai tourism figures plummet. Photo John Le Fevre

Waiting for customers... another boring day. Photo John Le Fevre

Empty tables... a sign of the times in the Thai tourism industry. Photo John Le Fevre

Empty beer bars such as this one are common in Thailand today. Photo John Le Fevre

Thai massage girls while away the time waiting for tourists. Photo John Le Fevre

Widely know as the Land of Smiles, or simply LOS, these days there are very few people smiling in Thailand as the ongoing political turmoil deteriorates by the day.

From the northern city of Chiang Mai to the southern holiday island of Phuket, tour operators and owners of businesses in the tourism sector are already writing off this years peak season and calculating whether their reserves will last through to next year.

Since the “anti-government” “Yellow Shirt” PAD protesters seized Bangkok’s Government House in August, tourism arrivals have stalled to the point that the country will be lucky to achieve the 14.6 million foreign visitors it attracted in 2007.

Tourism in Thailand accounts for more than six per cent of GDP, or around £10 billion in revenue, so reports that international arrivals in September were 16.6 per cent down compared to last year are cause for alarm.

Coupled with the global economic situation and plummeting value of the British pound and it’s easy to see why LOS has lost its smile.

Already the effect of the ongoing political stalemate has seen resorts and hotels begin laying off staff, as pristine beaches remain empty, rooms unoccupied, restaurants empty and motorbikes waiting for renters.

The Khao San Road precinct of Bangkok has long been a melting point for backpackers. However these days tourists, whether backpackers or those with more money to spend are few and far between.

In his travel agency on Khao San Road, David Tayler, owner and managing director of justdiveit.com looks out his window where the normal sea of western holidaymakers and backpackers has been replaced by ordinary Thais going about their business.

While foreign tourist have not completely disappeared from this epicentre of Bangkok’s tourism sector, he says the since the PAD protests started in August there has been a marked drop-off in travellers in the area.

According to Mr Tayler the slump in arrivals has already seen some travel agents close, while the reduction in high-end package tourists and Asian tourists has reached critical levels.

Jusediveit.com is directly affiliated with Buddha View dive resort on Koh Tao and Worldwide dive and sail in Phuket. Both of these resort areas have also been extremely hard hit.

Peter Lloyd, a former London city lawyer and retiree in Pattaya said he was surprised by the empty resorts and beaches he encountered on recent visits to Jomtien and Pattaya, as well as to Hua Hin and Ko Tao even before the seizure of Bangkok’s airports by the Yellow Shirts.

“Russian tourism has always seen as the salvation to anything bad in Thailand but that is already severely down on last year.

“My view for the short term is there will be no high season this year.”

This view is echoed by Bangkok travel agent Ted Loh, of Traveldee.

“The short term outlook for tourism is not particularly bright, given the disruptions in Thailand, combined with the worldwide economic downturn,” he said.

The situation will hopefully be resolved shortly and visitors will continue to realize the value of a holiday in Thailand so I expect that the industry will recover towards the end of the high season,” he added.

However both Mr Lloyd and Mr Tayler tend to take a more pessimistic view.

Mr Lloyd believes that for the medium term the political crisis in Thailand will continue to detrimentally impact tourism across all sectors, from beach vendors to luxury hotels and developments.

While Mr Lloyd believes that long term, the Thailand tourism industry will spring back as it has following SARS, the Avian Influenza outbreak, and the 2004 Asian Tsunami, he admits this might take a year or more.

A similar view is held by Englishman Simon Luttrell, owner of the Phuket Airport Hotel and a volunteer with the Phuket Tourist Police.

While Mr Luttrell doesn’t expect his business to be affected significantly because of the nature of his business, he expects hotels and resorts catering to holiday makers to be badly hit.

“Next year will be particularly bad. Tourists will not easily forget this incident (the seizure of Suvarnabhumi Airport), nor the closing of Phuket Airport by PAD protesters in September.

“If there is further unrest in Bangkok I suspect many tourists will look elsewhere for their Asian holiday.

Ignace Debbaut, owner of Lake Mabprachan Resort just outside of Pattaya said the ongoing political situation had already cost him more than Bt400,000 (over £7,000) from big spending golfing tourists canceling bookings.

Longer term he expects Thailand will return to the holiday list for a lot of tourists, however those who have been directly inconvenienced now, might very well never come back” he said.

Apichart Sankary, president of the Association of Thai Travel Agents (ATTA), said the PAD protests and seizure of both Bangkok airports will have a massive impact on the industry.

“Don’t think that the Thai tourism business will grow next year. It’s dying now because of the political problems. In the best case, we might just see flat growth,” Mr Apichart said.

The English Daily Telegraph story taken from this article can be read here: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/3532660/Thailand-protests-On-the-spot-in-Bangkok.html

ENDS:

© John Le Fevre, 2008

Thailand; Thailand tourism; Thailand travel; Thailand tourism; Thailand politics; Thailand riots; Tourism/travel industry; International affairs; Bangkok; Phuket tourism; Pattaya tourism; Chiang Mai; “Yellow Shirts”; PAD; Peoples Alliance for Democracy; Thailand Government House

Thailand political crisis worsens – further bloodshed forecast

Embattled Thailand Prime Minister Somechai Wongsawat - running the country from Thailand's old International airport. Photo Wikipedia

Thailand’s long running political crisis appears to be worsening with the question no longer being whether the military will step in and oust the government of embattled Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat with a coup d’etat but when.

In the wake of the bloody October 7 confrontation between police and “anti-governemnt”Thailand People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) protesters at Thailand’s Government House, relationships between the different parties in the coalition government have become strained and several parties have publicly threatened to pull-out of the alliance.

At the same time the relationship between the Government and the country’s powerful armed forces has deteriorated to what at best could be described as frozen.

Meanwhile “Yellow Shirt” anti-government protesters have stepped up their campaign, with thousands of supporters marching through downtown Bangkok and rallying at major shopping centres to hand out pamphlets and VCDs of the October 7 clash with police.

This latest escalation in the the anti-government protests has taken the action away from a small isolated park of Bangkok to the main business, shopping and tourism centers of Silom, Sukhumvit, and Wireless roads, to the giant Central World shopping mall.

Thai riot police move in on PAD protesters on October 7, 2008. Photo Bangkok Post

The result of the October 7 police action to clear PAD protesters from Thailand’s Government House, in which two people were killed and almost 500 hundred people hospitalised, has seen the government of this former Asian economic tiger sidelined to the point of being largely irrelevant.

Forced to running the country from hastily constructed offices at Thailand’s former  international airport, Don Muang, and numerous leased office sites around Bangkok, the government of Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat, Thailand’s second leader in less than eight months, is spending more time trying to remain in power than attending to matters of state.

General Anupong Paojinda, commander-in-chief of the Royal Thai Army, called on Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat to resign.

Of particular significance is a ruling last week by the National Counter Corruption Commission that Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat committed “serious malfeasance” when he was the permanent secretary for the Justice Ministry in 1999.

The NCCC has forwarded its findings to the Justice Ministry’s Civil Services Committee (CCC) to consider retroactively firing Somchai from service as permanent secretary for justice.

The ruling could result in Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat forced out of the prime minister’s role, as Thailand’s Constitution prohibits anyone fired from government service from becoming an MP.

The beleaguered government is under fire from all sides, with various inquiries into the October 7th violence now starting to deliver their findings.

Initial reports showed that the teargas canisters fired by police at protesters were sourced from China and contained the powerful military explosive RDX.

Thailand’s police chief has said police were unaware of the explosive force of the canisters, blamed for severing the hands, arms, feet and legs of several protesters, and killing two.

The director of the Central Institute of Forensic Science Thailand has squarely blamed the explosive, Chinese-made canisters as the cause of one protesters death.

Ant-government protesters lie injured after police fired explosive teargas canisters killing two people and hospitalising almost 500 on Oct 7, 2008. Photo Bangkok Post

Dr Pornthip Rojanasunan said the protester, 20-year-old Angkana Radubpanyawut, died from the impact of a tear gas canister fired by the police to disperse anti-government protesters.

“The tear gas struck at the chest before exploding a second after,” she said in her report.

Meanwhile Surasee Kosolnavin, chairman of the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) sub-committee investigating the crowd dispersal operation on October 7, said its investigation had found the operation by police was “excessive, violated human rights and the law.”

Mr Surasee said, while “the government must take responsibility for ordering police to take action against the protesters, the police themselves must accept responsibility for how the order was carried out.”

A distressed PAD protester receives treatment for teargas fired by police in "bloody Bangkok" on October 7, 2008. Photo Bangkok Post

Last week General Anupong Paojinda, commander-in-chief of the Royal Thai Army publicly called on Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat to accept responsibility for the death and injuries to PAD protesters at Government House and resign.

The comments came when General Anupong and other top military commanders, along with the commissioner-general of the Royal Thai Police, Police Gen Patcharawat Wongsuwan, appeared on a live television programme.

General Anupong said, “no government could survive after spilling blood on the street as society could not accept it.”

Meanwhile, Air Chief Marshal Ittiporn Supawong, the Royal Thai Air Force commander-in-chief, proclaimed “all branches of the armed forces are united and stand behind the people.”

Retired Thai army officer, Major General Khattiya Sawasdiphol, threatens to use petrol bombs against the Thai military if they attempt a coup d'etat

The comments from the powerful Thai military, who see themselves as protectors of the Thai monarchy and answerable only to the King of Thailand, show the Government cannot rely on the military for support in it’s ongoing battle with anti-government protesters.

The comments by the military follow a call by former deputy prime minister Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, who resigned from the cabinet after ordering the police action against PAD demonstrators on October 7, for the military to mount a coup d’etat.

At the time he announced his resignation, General Chavalit said, “a military-led coup d’etat is the only way to resolve the political strife.”

However last week Royal Thai Army spokesman, Colonel Sansern Kaewkamnoed, denied speculation that the military might mount another coup d’etat, a little more than two years after deposing the government of prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra in just such a move.

Quoting General Anupong, Colonel Sansern said, “a coup won’t solve the political problem.”

With PAD protesters still occupying Thailand’s Government House and their protest rallies now interrupting traffic in a city which already has some of the worst traffic congestion in the world, “pro-government” “Red Shirt” groups are now threatening to launch their own action.

Retired police General Salang Bunnag, a former deputy police chief, has vowed to lead a group of 1,000 inactive or retired police to retake Thailand’s Government House from the PAD Yellow Shirts and “return it to the Thai people.”

The 2006 coup d'etat that ousted Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra saw the military receive flowers from Thai citizens. This time it may not be so peaceful. Photo Manik Sethisuwan

According to General Salang, he plans to launch the reclamation offensive following a religious ceremony on Wednesday, October 22, at the nearby Royal Plaza where more than 10,000 Buddhist monks will say a mass prayer to bless the country and “mend torn Thai society.”

At the same time a retired Thai army officer, Major General Khattiya Sawasdiphol, said pro-government Democratic Alliance against Dictatorship (DAAD) and United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) members would use petrol bombs against tanks and military vehicles taking part in any coup attempt.

Major General Khattiya said, “the use of Molotov cocktails against tanks has been practised widely, but never in Thailand. This will be the first and only time that the people have threatened a counter-coup, if tanks roam Bangkok streets.

“In the last coup people gave them (the military) flowers. But if they come out now, people will hurl Molotov Cocktails at them,” he added.

Unlike the bloodless 2006 military coup, pro-government supporters threaten violent resistance should the military attempt another putsch. Photo Manik Sethisuwan

The retired army General said he was currently training hundreds of pro-government supporters how to fight at a secret training camp and added that several pro-government movements in the Northeast are poised to take to the streets and fight troops should a coup d’etat be attempted.

The comments have prompted Pracharaj Party leader Snoh Thienthong to claim another bloodbath will definitely happen because certain people are instigating unrest.

He said he believed the country was on the brink of violence because the country was now in the state of lawlessness.

Meanwhile embattled Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat has been forced to continue taking extraordinary measures to ensure his own safety and avoid being “captured” and paving the way for a military putsch.

After being forced to scale a spiked, steel fence to leave Government House on October 7th, the premier opted to take a charter flight instead of the usual military jet to Ubon Ratchathani over the weekend to visit soldiers wounded in border clashes with Cambodian troops last week.

With the royal funeral service of HRH Princess Galyani scheduled to take place next month (see: http://photojourn.wordpress.com/2008/09/15/thailands-royal-cremation-set-for-six-days-in-november/), it is difficult to see this the current political situation being allowed to continue for much longer.

The so-called People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) is campaigning for the resignation of the elected Thailand Government, accusing it of being a puppet of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra who was ousted in a September 2006 coup d’état and who fled Thailand while on bail while facing corruption charges and has since sought political asylum in England.

The PAD, comprises mostly Bangkok elite, businessmen, generals and aristocrats, and is demanding the introduction of an undemocratic “new politics” where 70 per cent of the  parliament would be appointed and only 30 per cent elected.

It has vowed to not give up its occupation Government House, which it first stormed on August 26, 2008, until the current government resigns.

The graphic video distributed by the PAD in Bangkok of the October 7, 2008 clash with Thai riot police can be downloaded for free from here. This is a 49-minute video and the downloads require the Split & Contact application or similar to join the two files: http://rapidshare.com/files/156003635/Bloody_Bangkok_Oct_7__2008.avi.001 and http://rapidshare.com/files/156015195/Bloody_Bangkok_Oct_7__2008.avi.002

The graphic television footage of the October 7, 2008 police clash with PAD protesters can be viewed here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YiD1kRVDBxE

Read the head of the Tourism Authority of Thailand’s comments here: http://photojourn.wordpress.com/2008/10/11/thailand-tourism-chief-believes-deadly-clashes-will-not-significantly-affect-tourism/

Read the affect the ongoing political situation is having on the Thailand tourism industry here: http://photojourn.wordpress.com/2008/10/10/thailand-tourism-in-crisis-as-protesters-die-in-bloody-bangkok/

Ends:
© John Le Fevre, 2008

October 24, 2008 update. Only hours after I posted a reply to a question from Guy in America (see below), the Bangkok Post published this analysis piece. Written by  Wassana Nanuam – by far one of the better journalists in Thailand – it expresses similar views to those contained in the article above and the response below. See: http://www.bangkokpost.com/topstories/topstories.php?id=131604

Bangkok; General Anupong Paojinda; General Salang Bunnag; International affairs; Major General Khattiya Sawasdiphol; October 7 2008; Somechai Wongsawat; Thailand; Thailand politics; Thailand riots; Thailand tourism; Thailand travel; Tourism/travel industry; PAD; Peoples Alliance for Democracy; Thailand military; “Yellow Shirts”; Thailand Government House; Pornthip Rojanasunan; Thaksin Shinawatra; “Red shirts”; Democratic Alliance against Dictatorship; United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship

Thailand tourism chief believes deadly clashes will not significantly affect tourism

Tourism Authority of Thailand governor, Phornsiri Manoharn, predicts the bloody clashes between police and protesters will not have a significant affect on tourism. Photo TAT

PAD protesters armed with sticks, pieces of wood, iron bars and golf clubs attack police at the Parliament House on Oct. 7. Photo Der Spiegel

TAT governor, Phornsiri Manoharn thinks scenes such as this of anti-government protesters fleeing teargas in front of Bangkok's Parliament House on Tuesday, Oct. 7, 2008 will not dissuade tourists. Photo AP/Sakchai Lalit

Many tour operators have all but written off 2008 after scenes of anti-government protesters ducking exploding teargas canisters in front of Parliament House in Bangkok, on Oct. 7, 2008 were flashed around the world. Photo AP/Sakchai Lali

The head of Thailand’s tourism promotion authority has predicted the bloody and violent clashes between police and “anti-government” People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) protesters last Monday (Oct. 7, 2008) will not have a significant effect on the Thailand’s tourism industry.

Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) governor Phornsiri Manoharn said the clashes happened only in limited areas near Government House, the PAD’s stronghold, with the affected area spanning only three square kilometres, leaving other areas of Bangkok unaffected

While Ms Phornsiri said the TAT had yet to estimate the impact on the coming high season, she pledged to closely monitor the situation

She said that in the wake of the latest violent clashes she had called an urgent meeting of all deputies and senior officials to assess the situation and to immediately explain the clashes to the TAT’s 22 overseas offices.

Ms Phornsiri’s assessment is in direct contrast to that of other Thailand tourism chiefs, who have all but written off the coming peak season.

Porntip Hirunkate, secretary-general of the Tourism Council of Thailand, predicted the bloody clashes would result in losses of at least 10 billion baht (about $US 290.4 million) in tourism revenue over the remaining three months of this year alone.

Similar views were echoed by Apichart Sankary, president of the Association of Thailand Travel Agents, who said, “don’t ask me about the country’s image. It’s gone already in the eyes of foreigners.

“What I can do now is pray the situation will improve as soon as possible.”

Natwut Amornvivat, president of the Thailand Convention & Exhibition Bureau (TCEB), said the violence would hurt the meeting, incentive, convention and exhibition (Mice) market and that TCEB may reduce its Mice target of 1.2 million visitors next year due to the global recession and political turmoil.

“The Asian market, which accounts for 80 per cent of total Mice visitors in Thailand, will easily panic” he said.

In Phuket plans by officials to celebrate the arrival at the airport of the six millionth passenger of 2008, previously predicted for around this time of the year, have been postponed, with the figure now not expected to be reached until some time in December.

Coming on top of the clashes in September, the imposition of a state of emergency in Bangkok, the closure of three airports stranding more than 150,000 foreign tourists in August, and the shut down of the nations rail system, the assessment by the TAT’s chief would appear to indicate an organisation totally out of touch with the industry it represents.

Immediately following the bloody clashes which left two people dead, hundreds injured and several maimed, Thai Airways International executive vice-president Pandit Chanapai declared, “the situation has deteriorated from bad to worse, well beyond our expectation.”

The comments came as the airline foreshadowed further flight cut backs, particularly on regional routes, and disclosed it had filled only 70 per cent of its seats in the third quarter.

”What is terrible about the current political crisis is its open-ended nature. Unlike 9/11, Sars and the tsunami, we don’t when it will end,” Mr Pandit said.

A quick look at any of Thailand’s English language newspapers highlights how dire the situation is.

From Chiang Mai in the north to Phuket in the south newspaper classified advertising is full of businesses in Thailand’s tourism sector being offered for sale.

Everything from guest houses and hotels to deep sea fishing charter, diving schools and beer bars are appearing in record numbers, with many desperately carrying the tag “for urgent sale”.

With Thailand’s tourism high season already well underway and the peak season rapidly approaching, the writing is well and truly on the wall that this is going to be a very bad season for Thailand’s tourism industry.

According to one Chiang Mai tour operator, “saying the Bangkok clashes were only in a small part of the city is like telling people the Marriot Hotel bombing in Pakistan or the Bali bombings were only in isolated pockets of those cities.

“While it is true, no one cares. When it comes to holidays it’s generally the wife and/or mother who makes the decision on where the family will go and the prospect of any disruption or violence is something most wives and mothers won’t even contemplate.”

Following the first round of violence in August, 26 countries issued warnings to their citizens to avoid traveling to Thailand. Many of those nations still have not lifted their advisory despite intense lobbying by Thailand’s Ministry of Tourism and Sports and TAT regional representatives.

The so-called People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) is campaigning for the resignation of the elected Thailand Government, accusing it of being a puppet of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra who was ousted in a September 2006 coup d’état and who fled Thailand while on bail while facing corruption charges and has since sought political asylum in England.

The PAD, comprises mostly Bangkok elite, businessmen, generals and aristocrats, and is demanding the introduction of an undemocratic “new politics” where 70 per cent of the parliament would be appointed and only 30 per cent elected.

It has vowed to not give up its occupation Government House, which it first stormed on August 26, 2008, until the current government resigns.

A full report of the effects the protests have so far had on Thailand’s tourism industry can be read at: http://photojourn.wordpress.com/2008/10/10/thailand-tourism-in-crisis-as-protesters-die-in-bloody-bangkok/

ENDS:
© John Le Fevre

Thailand; Thailand tourism; Tourism Authority of Thailand; Thailand travel; Thailand tourism; Thailand politics; Thailand riots; Tourism/travel industry; International affairs; Bangkok; Phuket tourism; Chiang Mai; October 7 2008; Phornsiri Manoharn; Peoples Alliance for Democracy; PAD; Thailand Government House; Thai Airways International; Thaksin Shinawatra